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Carcavelos surf forecast
Kiwi reads Carcavelos four times a day and tells you the hour worth paddling out for. Free, hour by hour, in plain words.
When to paddle out at Carcavelos
Today and tomorrow hour by hour from 05:00 to 21:00, then every 3 hours for two more days, rated 1 to 5 stars. Green-outlined rows are each day's best window.
08:00–12:00 · glassy
Today 31 Oct
Go 08-12, clean chest-shoulder, glassy.
Kiwi's best shot: 08:00–12:00
Every hour, 05–21
Tide and daylight
- High
- 05:44 3.5 m
- Low
- 12:11 1.4 m
- High
- 18:26 3.1 m
- Sunrise
- 07:02
- Sunset
- 17:38
Tomorrow 1 Nov
Worth it 08-12, clean waist-chest, offshore NE.
Best window: 08:00–12:00
Every hour, 05–21
Tide and daylight
- Low
- 00:27 1.6 m
- High
- 06:53 3.3 m
- Low
- 13:29 1.5 m
- High
- 19:48 3.0 m
- Sunrise
- 07:03
- Sunset
- 17:37
Monday 2 Nov
Skip: small, knee-waist, glassy.
Every 3 hours
Tide and daylight
- Low
- 01:49 1.7 m
- High
- 08:15 3.2 m
- Low
- 14:58 1.5 m
- High
- 21:15 3.0 m
- Sunrise
- 07:04
- Sunset
- 17:36
Tuesday 3 Nov
Too small here today, skip.
Every 3 hours
Tide and daylight
- Low
- 03:17 1.7 m
- High
- 09:38 3.3 m
- Low
- 16:15 1.5 m
- High
- 22:28 3.1 m
- Sunrise
- 07:05
- Sunset
- 17:35
Forecast point: Carcavelos (38.678° N, 9.336° W). Waves = estimated breaking height at the beach. Data: Open-Meteo wave and weather models (CC BY 4.0), corrected on buoys. Generated using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information (DOI 10.48670/moi-00043). Surf at your own risk.
The swell is the boss here. Carcavelos is tucked inside the mouth of the Tagus and faces south-southwest, so only a solid west to south-west swell reaches it. Check the swell column (size, period, direction) before the wind: the wind is usually kind here.
Carcavelos, peak by peak
One sweep of sand, about 1.25 km long, from the rocks of Ponta de Rana in the west to the walls of the São Julião da Barra fort in the east. The sandbars move with every storm, so the peaks move too. The two ends, by the rocks and by the fort, make the hollowest waves; the middle is gentler.
The fort end: the Calhau
ExperiencedBarrelsLocalsUnder the walls of the São Julião da Barra fort, Carcavelos gets hollowest. On solid winter swells the Calhau, a left in front of Bar dos Gémeos, runs in sections towards the old Narciso building. These are the most contested peaks on the beach: wait your turn.
Surftotal calls the Calhau the cradle of Portuguese surfing, and Pedro Martins de Lima, remembered as the father of Portuguese surfing, was riding waves at Carcavelos in his teens.
The middle
Beginners on small daysSurf schoolsBusiestKiwi's forecast point and the heart of the beach: shifting sandbars with lefts and rights (the lefts are usually the better ones), the surf schools and most of the crowd. On small days the whitewater here is a fine place to learn. When a solid swell arrives, the same banks throw fast, heavy waves and the paddle out gets hard.
The west end: Ponta de Rana
RocksExperiencedThe beach ends at the rocks of Ponta de Rana. Guides describe the sections by these western rocks as hollower and heavier, breaking over shallow rock at low tide. Leave them to experienced surfers.
Parede to São Pedro do Estoril
ReefsKiwi forecasts São PedroWest of Carcavelos the sand gives way to rock. Parede is a right-hand reef that needs a big swell and likes low tide, with far fewer surfers than Carcavelos. Next comes the Avencas marine protected area: no collecting on the rock platforms, and keep to the marked paths at low tide.
São Pedro do Estoril is another reef, and Kiwi rates it separately in the 06:00 call. In 2026 the captaincy kept its unstable cliff areas closed.
Praia da Torre: plan B
ShelteredBig daysJust east of the fort, in Oeiras, Torre is more sheltered and needs a big swell to break, which is exactly when Carcavelos is maxing out. Look for a right off the rocks on its west side and sand peaks in the middle. Guides flag water quality here too.
What Carcavelos needs to fire
These are the exact rules behind Kiwi's rating for this spot. Every hour of the forecast is scored on all four, then turned into a rating of 1 to 5 stars.
Swell
West to south-west, 10 s or longer
The beach faces south-southwest (the line in the dial). Swell from 210° to 285° walks in. Even then the coast to the west shelters it, so Kiwi expects smaller waves here than on the open coast. Outside the window the size fades fast: a north-west swell has to bend round Cabo Raso, and from more than 45° off only a little wraps in.
Wind
Offshore from the north-northeast
Wind from about 345° to 55° (north to north-east) blows offshore and holds the faces up. Under 6 km/h Kiwi calls it glassy. The light shades on the dial, north-west and east-north-east, are cross-offshore: still fine, which is why the summer north wind rarely ruins it here.
Tide
Low to mid
Kiwi's rating prefers low to mid tide. Most guides say it breaks on every tide and lean to low-mid or mid; one says less water is better, another prefers mid tide on the push.
Size
Best at 1.3 to 2.5 metres
It needs about 0.7 metres to start working. Between 1.3 and 2.5 metres it is at its best, and over 3.5 metres Kiwi says stay out.
Kiwi's shortcut: a long-period west to south-west swell, a north or north-east wind and low to mid tide. When those three line up, the green-outlined rows show up in the table above.
The best months to surf Carcavelos
We replayed Kiwi's rating on every day from January 2025 to October 2026 and counted how often Carcavelos's best window reached 4 or 5 stars.
Dec · Jan · FebThe real season
Winter is when the big west and south-west swells bend into the bay. The best window reached 4 or 5 stars on 36% of February days, 29% in December and 21% in January, and the typical size at the best window was 2.4 m. Big days are heavy.
Mar · Apr · MayStill working
The swell shrinks through spring, from about 1.2 m in March to 0.9 m in May at the best window. 16% of days reached 4+ stars and 41% had 3 or more.
Jun · Jul · AugMostly flat
Summer swells rarely make it this far into the bay: only 10% of summer days had a session worth 3 stars or more, and not one July day reached 4 stars. The wind is rarely the problem (clean at the best window on 86% of summer days); the swell just isn't there. Small days are for first lessons.
Sep · Oct · NovWaking up
Autumn swells start to reach the beach again: 10% of September days and 12% of October days made 4+ stars, rising to 17% in November as the typical size grows from 0.7 m to 2.1 m.
Before you go
Rips and lifeguards
Lifeguards are on duty daily from 09:00 to 19:00, 1 May to 30 September (2026 bathing season). Currents are real here: in February 2024, 29 surfers caught in a strong current could not get back to the beach and were pulled out by the lifeboat crew and lifeguards.
On big days the paddle out is hard work and you can hit the sandbar. Emergencies: 112.
The yellow-warning rule
Most forecast sites miss this one. Carcavelos is under the Cascais port captaincy, whose rules (Edital 950/2024) ban surfing, bodyboarding and SUP while IPMA has a yellow or higher sea warning out (licensed athletes with a coach are exempt). Surfing is also only allowed from sunrise until one hour before sunset.
In the bathing season, at lifeguarded beaches, surfers keep 150 to 300 m out or use the marked corridors, away from swimmers. During those warnings the sea wall and beach accesses are closed too, above all around high tide.
Getting there without a car
- Cascais line train from Cais do Sodré: 27 minutes to Carcavelos.
- Every 15 to 20 minutes on weekdays and every 20 minutes at weekends during the day, every 30 minutes early and late. On some early Sunday trains a replacement bus runs: check CP first.
- From Carcavelos station to the sand is about 1 km, 10 to 20 minutes on foot.
- Bus 1601 runs from Amadora Este (Metro) to the beach stop, Carcavelos (Praia).
Driving and parking
15 to 20 minutes from Lisbon along the Marginal (EN6). The beach has three car parks on the seafront, Poente, Central and Nascente, about 850 spaces in all by APA's count, and on a sunny summer day they fill up.
In summer 2025 Cascais added two temporary car parks run by the local volunteer firefighters (Avenida Jorge V and Estrada da Torre, €2 a day). The train is the easy option.
Surf schools
A few of the schools teaching on this beach, in no order: Carcavelos Surf School, Angels Surf School, 7ª Essência, Tricana Surf Experience, Tubeline Surf School. One school says that in flat summer spells its lessons may move to Guincho or Caparica.
Crowds
Carcavelos is one of the closest surf beaches to Lisbon and it shows: there is a crowd in the water almost any time it works, weekends are packed and the fort-end peaks have their locals. Go at first light, or try Torre or Parede when it is big.
Water quality
Two polluted streams, the Marianas and the Sassoeiros, reach the beach. From April to September weirs send them into the sewers, but heavy rain can overtop them and APA warns of pollution episodes lasting 1 to 2 days (APA beach profile). From October to March, the surf season, the streams are not diverted at all.
The good news: no swimming days were lost to pollution in 2025, and Carcavelos flies the Blue Flag and the accessible-beach flag in 2026.
Water and wetsuit
Monthly averages run from about 14 °C in February to about 18.5 °C in September; APA gives 17 to 19 °C in the bathing season.
Typical advice: a 4/3 mm full suit in winter, with boots on the coldest days, and a 3/2 in summer.
Webcams
KiwiSurf has no camera of its own yet. MEO Beachcam has a public cam on the beach, and Surftotal runs two, Carcavelos and Carcavelos - Calhau.
Contests
Carcavelos hosts the Capítulo Perfeito, a one-day barrel contest that only runs when hollow waves line up; its 2026 waiting period is 1 November to 15 December. In 2014 the beach held a pro qualifying event, the Cascais Billabong Pro.
Where the numbers come from
The method
Kiwi starts from Open-Meteo's wave models (at Carcavelos all four have data: ECMWF WAM, Météo-France, NOAA's GFS-Wave and Open-Meteo's own best-match blend) and corrects them with a model trained on past forecasts against Instituto Hidrográfico buoys, before anything else happens.
Then each hour at Carcavelos is scored on the four rules above (swell, wind, tide, size) and calibrated so that 4 stars at Carcavelos mean the same as 4 stars at Guincho.
What we can prove
Measured on 30 days the model never trained on (29 September to 28 October 2026) at the offshore buoys. Not every week is better: in the last 7 days of that test, with big October swells, waves were 6% worse.
There is no buoy at Carcavelos, so the size at the beach is our model's estimate, not a measurement. See the full accuracy test.
Carcavelos surf questions
What is the surf like at Carcavelos today?
Kiwi's 07:56 run gives Carcavelos 4/5 stars today: Go 08-12, clean chest-shoulder, glassy. Waves 1.1–1.5 m, 12 s swell from the WNW, wind glassy 4 km/h, tide low falling. The table above has today and tomorrow hour by hour from 05:00 to 21:00 and the two days after every 3 hours.
Is Carcavelos good for surfing?
Yes, when a solid west to south-west swell reaches it. It is one of the best-known beach breaks near Lisbon, with fast, hollow waves on good days, but it sits inside the Tagus mouth and is often small or flat in summer. In Kiwi's replay of 2025 and 2026, the best months were February and December, with 4 or 5 stars on 36% and 29% of days (December covers 2025 only).
Is Carcavelos good for beginners?
On small days, yes: the middle of the beach has soft whitewater and several surf schools. Leave the fort end and the rocks of Ponta de Rana to experienced surfers, and stay out when it is big and the currents get strong. Summer is gentle but often too small: only 10% of summer days had 3 stars or more in Kiwi's replay.
When is the best time of year to surf Carcavelos?
Winter, in Kiwi's replay: February and December were the best months (December covers 2025 only). Spring still works, autumn builds towards November, and summer is mostly flat: not one July day reached 4 stars.
Which wind is best at Carcavelos?
A north to north-east wind blows offshore here, and under 6 km/h it is glassy. North-west and east-north-east winds are cross-offshore and still fine, so the summer north wind rarely spoils it. South and south-west winds blow straight onshore. The wind column in the table above shows each hour's wind and whether it is offshore, cross or onshore at this beach.
Is there a webcam at Carcavelos?
Not from KiwiSurf yet. MEO Beachcam has a public cam on the beach, and Surftotal runs Carcavelos and Carcavelos - Calhau. A cam shows you now; Kiwi tells you which hour to go.
How do I get to Carcavelos from Lisbon by train?
Take the Cascais line from Cais do Sodré: 27 minutes to Carcavelos, every 15 to 20 minutes on weekdays and every 20 minutes at weekends during the day. From the station it is about 1 km, 10 to 20 minutes on foot, to the sand.
Where can I park at Carcavelos beach?
There are three car parks along the seafront, Poente, Central and Nascente, with about 850 spaces in all by APA's count. On sunny summer days they fill up; in summer 2025 Cascais added two temporary car parks at €2 a day. The train is easier.
What is the water temperature at Carcavelos?
About 14 °C in February at the coldest and about 18.5 °C in September at the warmest, on monthly averages. Typical advice: a 4/3 mm wetsuit with boots in winter and a 3/2 in summer.
Is the water clean at Carcavelos?
In the bathing season, usually: from April to September weirs divert the two polluted streams that reach the beach, though APA warns that rain can still cause pollution episodes of 1 to 2 days. From October to March, when most of the surfing happens, the streams are not diverted, so stay out after heavy rain. No bathing days were lost to pollution in the 2025 season, and the beach flies the Blue Flag in 2026.
Can I surf at Carcavelos during a yellow sea warning?
Not by the rules. The Cascais port captaincy (Edital 950/2024) bans surfing, bodyboarding and SUP while IPMA has a yellow or higher sea-state warning out, except for licensed athletes with a coach. Surfing is also only allowed from sunrise until one hour before sunset.
How accurate is the KiwiSurf forecast?
On 30 days the model never trained on (29 September to 28 October 2026), it cut the wave height error by 8% and the wind speed error by 16% compared with raw Open-Meteo, measured at the offshore buoys. Not every week is better: in the last 7 days of that test waves were 6% worse. There is no buoy at Carcavelos, so the size at the beach is an estimate.
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